Although the number of HIV incident cases is expected to drop across the majority of Europe’s major nations in the near future, the UK figure will actually increase, predicts research and consulting firm GlobalData.
According to the London based company’s new epidemiology report*, the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases in the UK is forecast to climb from 7,545 in 2012 to 8,691 by the end of 2022 – representing an increase of 15%.
The rise runs counter to forecasted trends for other major EU nations such as Germany, Italy, France and Spain, who can all expect falling incident cases of HIV during the same period, says GlobalData.
Due primarily to substantial population growth within the 15–49 years age group, GlobalData expects India to have the highest increase in HIV incident cases, with an increase of over 21,000 new cases expected over the next 10 years.
Alyssa Klein, GlobalData’s Senior Analyst covering Epidemiology, says: “If India and China adopt prevention programs similar to Brazil, which is often considered a model of HIV prevention for the developing world, the number of incident cases could decrease, as high-risk groups become the focus of targeted prevention strategies."
NOTES TO EDITORS
*EpiCast Report: Human Immunodeficiency Virus - Epidemiology Forecast to 2022
This report provides an overview of the risk factors and global trends of HIV in seven major markets (the US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, and Japan) in addition to emerging markets—Brazil, India, and China.
This report was built using data and information sourced from proprietary databases, primary and secondary research, and in-house analysis conducted by GlobalData’s team of industry experts.
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